#510 - Dealing With Uncertainty

The problem of uncertainty has plagued environmental regulation from the beginning. The common practice in the U.S. is to ignore or deny the existence of uncertainty, or to apply arbitrary numerical "fudge factors," then to proceed as if everything were known with a high degree of certainty. For example, a deadly amount of a chemical may be determined for mice; then a fudge factor of 100 or 1000 may be applied to the mouse number to reach a standard called "safe" for humans. U.S laws promote this sort of unscientific behavior. For example, our laws typically require a regulatory agency to develop "safe" standards for toxic chemicals. Science cannot determine "safe" levels of toxic chemicals, so government agencies, environmental lobbyists, and the polluters all respond identically, PRETENDING that "safe" levels of toxics have been determined and that only "good science" has been employed in the process. As a result of such widespread abuses of the scientific method, many Americans have begun to lose confidence in science as a way of knowing about the world.